2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets from top model

After being swept out of the Western Conference finals by the Denver Nuggets last season, the Los Angeles Lakers will get a chance at revenge on Saturday when the teams meet in Game 1 of their 2024 NBA playoffs first-round series in Denver. The seventh-seeded Lakers (47-35), who are coming off a 110-106 win over New Orleans in a play-in matchup on Tuesday, are riding a three-game winning streak. The second-seeded Nuggets (57-25), the defending NBA champions, have won four of their last five games. This is the third time in the past five years the teams will be meeting in the postseason, and the Lakers have won seven of the eight playoff series between them. Los Angeles leads the all-time series 138-91, including a 25-12 edge in the postseason.

Tipoff from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is a 7-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Nuggets odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 223.5. Before making any Nuggets vs. Lakers picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NBA odds and betting lines for Lakers vs. Nuggets:

Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -7
Lakers vs. Nuggets over/under: 223.5 points
Lakers vs. Nuggets money line: Lakers +229, Nuggets -286
LAL: The Lakers went 27-25 this season against Western Conference opponents
DEN: The Nuggets went 33-8 at home, and are 67-15 at Ball Arena over the past two years
Lakers vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
Veteran center Nikola Jokic continues to dominate. The eight-year pro nearly averaged a triple-double with 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game in 79 appearances. He posted an amazing 68 double-doubles and 25 triple-doubles on the year. He reached double-digit scoring 75 times, including 28 games with 30 or more. In a 116-107 win over Minnesota on April 10, he scored 41 points, while grabbing 11 rebounds and dishing out seven assists.

Point guard Jamal Murray has also found the range of late, scoring 20 or more points in each of the last four games. In a 121-120 loss at San Antonio on April 12, he poured in 35 points, while adding five rebounds and four assists. He has reached 10 or more points 54 times this season, including eight with 30 or more. He has posted 11 double-doubles. In 59 games, all starts, Murray is averaging 21.2 points, 6.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds. See which team to pick here.

Why the Lakers can cover
Small forward LeBron James nearly had his second triple-double in a row on Tuesday in the play-in game win over New Orleans. In that game, James scored 23 points, while adding nine rebounds and nine assists. He had 28 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds in Sunday’s 124-108 win over the Pelicans. In 71 games, all starts, James is averaging 25.7 points, 8.3 assists, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 35.3 minutes. He has been productive against the Nuggets this season. In three games, he is averaging 24 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and 1.7 steals.

Power forward Anthony Davis has also been dominant of late, posting three consecutive double-doubles. In Tuesday’s play-in win over the Pelicans, Davis scored 20 points, while grabbing 15 rebounds. He had 30 points and 11 boards at New Orleans on Sunday, and 36 points and 14 rebounds in a 123-120 win at Memphis on April 12. In 76 games, all starts, Davis is averaging 24.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1.2 steals in 35.5 minutes. See which team to pick here.

How to make Lakers vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 224 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick and analysis at SportsLine.

So who wins Lakers vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Nuggets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

Why Nuggets will slow key Lakers player, plus more for Saturday

Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
This is my favorite bet on Saturday’s slate. Playoff games tend to be lower-scoring than their regular-season counterparts. Here we have the No. 3-ranked defense (Orlando) and the No. 7 ranked defense (Cleveland). Donovan Mitchell has played in only 11 games since the All-Star break, and he’s averaged just 19.5 points on 40.4% shooting in those games. He’s clearly still playing hurt. The Magic have given Jonathan Isaac, the best per-minute defender in the NBA, a bigger role lately and even started him in the season finale. This is going to be an all-defense series. The lines aren’t reflecting that yet. They will soon. The Pick: Under 207.5

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
This is just a nightmare matchup for Minnesota. Their league-best defense is predicated on Rudy Gobert’s drop-defense at the rim and the relentless pressure they can put on the ball with Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. How do you beat drop-coverage? By shooting jumpers. The Suns do that as well as anyone. Minnesota isn’t going to use all three of their top perimeter defenders at the same time because that crowds Mike Conley out of the lineup if they’re playing two bigs. That means one of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will have someone to pick on. The Pick: Suns +1.5

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Kyle Lowry has played 35 playoff games with Nick Nurse as his head coach. He’s averaged 37.5 minutes in those games. Even normal coaches trim their rotations and rely on the players they trust most far more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. Nick Nurse isn’t a normal coach. He’s already the most starter-heavy coach in the NBA (except perhaps his counterpart in this series). That’s going to mean plenty of Lowry, who averaged 4.6 assists per game once he joined the 76ers. This line is more than two assists below that average. The Pick: Lowry Over 2.5 Assists

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
D’Angelo Russell scored 25 points in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. That’s not his average. That’s his four-game total. By Game 4, Darvin Ham had lost so much trust in him that Russell was removed from the starting lineup and played less than 15 minutes in the series-decider. Russell scored 17 points the last time these teams played, but Ham largely didn’t play him down the stretch, instead removing him with 7:37 remaining and only bringing him back when the Lakers trailed by seven with 1:34 remaining. This isn’t his matchup. Ham doesn’t trust him against Denver. The Pick: Russell Under 15.5 Points

2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets from proven model

The No. 4 seed Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34) and No. 5 seed Orlando Magic (47-35) will meet for Game 1 of a highly anticipated first-round 2024 NBA playoff series in the Eastern Conference on Saturday afternoon. They split their four regular-season meetings, with both teams winning once at home and once on the road. The Magic are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2020 after wrapping up their best regular season since 2010-11. Cleveland is hoping to advance past the first round for the first time since 2017-18 after losing to the Knicks in five games last year.

Tipoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Cavaliers vs. Magic odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 207.5. Before making any Cavaliers vs. Magic picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Magic vs. Cavs and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Cavs vs. Magic:

Magic vs. Cavaliers spread: Cleveland -4.5
Magic vs. Cavaliers over/under: 207.5 points
Magic vs. Cavaliers money line: Cleveland -198, Orlando +164
ORL: The Magic are 51-31 against the spread this season.
CLE: The Cavaliers are 39-43 against the spread this season.
Magic vs. Cavaliers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Magic can cover
Forward Paolo Banchero is impactful in multiple ways for the Magic. Banchero is a smooth playmaker and high-end finisher around the rim. The 2022 first-overall pick logs 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. He dropped 26 points, 11 boards and seven assists in his last outing.

Forward Franz Wagner brings another nice scoring threat to the frontcourt. Wagner owns the instincts to be disruptive defensively with the athleticism to finish around the rim with ease. The Michigan product averages 19.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. He had 25 points, five rebounds and three assists in his last outing. Wagner notched 20-plus points in five of his last six games. See which team to pick here.

Why the Cavaliers can cover
Orlando has not won a playoff series since the Dwight Howard era, winning just two total playoff games over the past decade. Cleveland has recent playoff experience, making the field last year before bowing out to New York. The Cavaliers will have the best player on the court in All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell, who averages 27.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game.

He dropped 35 points against the Magic in December, and he also leads Cleveland on defense with 2.6 steals per game. Orlando relies heavily on second-year player Paolo Banchero, but he will be playing in the first playoff game of his career. The Cavaliers have won five of their last six home games against Orlando, and they have the upper hand due to being the more experienced team on Saturday. See which team to pick here.

How to make Magic vs. Cavaliers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 213 points. The model also says one side hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick and analysis at SportsLine.

So who Magic vs. Cavaliers, and which side hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cavs vs. Magic spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.